Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132022 221006 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     68.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  13.5  17.3  16.5  11.8  15.1  14.8  20.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  37.0  31.0  37.0  36.0  33.0  32.0  35.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  68.0  49.0  53.0 101.0 139.0  95.0 160.0  F  N  N  N  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  80.0  84.0  86.0  85.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        5.4%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.8%       47.5%       33.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       30.2%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       29.7%       16.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       28.1%       14.6%
 45kt / 36h       17.5%       62.8%       40.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       42.2%       21.1%
 55kt / 48h       43.6%       54.7%       49.1%
 70kt / 48h       17.8%       42.8%       30.3%
 65kt / 72h       53.0%       69.0%       61.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 AL132022 221006 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     68.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  13.5  17.3  16.5  11.8  15.1  14.8  20.6  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  80.0  84.0  86.0  85.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%