Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132022 221007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  20.1  21.1  16.8  14.5  14.2  17.5  20.5  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  32.0  39.0  45.0  33.0  35.0  34.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  56.0 101.0 103.0  78.0 140.0 112.0 141.0  N  N  F  F  N VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  81.0  85.0  84.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       25.1%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%       10.9%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%       10.1%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       10.1%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h       12.7%       34.1%       23.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.7%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h       34.4%       30.9%       32.7%
 70kt / 48h       16.5%       18.6%       17.5%
 65kt / 72h       49.3%       46.2%       47.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 AL132022 221007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  20.1  21.1  16.8  14.5  14.2  17.5  20.5  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  81.0  85.0  84.0  86.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%