Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132022 221007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     72.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  16.2  14.5  13.5  14.7  19.4  22.9  25.1  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  41.0  42.0  32.0  33.0  34.0  15.0   8.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0 103.0  85.0 105.0 149.0 147.0 142.0 142.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.8%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       44.4%       32.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%       25.8%       17.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       25.8%       15.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       25.8%       15.4%
 45kt / 36h       25.0%       57.0%       41.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       33.7%       16.9%
 55kt / 48h       41.4%       46.4%       43.9%
 70kt / 48h       20.4%       33.2%       26.8%
 65kt / 72h       39.9%       48.7%       44.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 AL132022 221007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     72.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  16.2  14.5  13.5  14.7  19.4  22.9  25.1  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%