Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132022 221007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     73.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  15.0  13.4  10.7  12.4  19.9  23.3  27.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  38.0  31.0  33.0  30.0   5.0   4.0  15.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0 103.0 110.0 135.0 144.0 189.0 178.0 136.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  79.0  81.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        4.9%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       26.4%       47.4%       36.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.6%       28.2%       20.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%       28.2%       16.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       28.2%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h       30.4%       59.5%       44.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.6%       18.3%
 55kt / 48h       46.8%       50.1%       48.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       37.4%       31.0%
 65kt / 72h       53.6%       53.5%       53.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 AL132022 221007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     73.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  15.0  13.4  10.7  12.4  19.9  23.3  27.5  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  79.0  81.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%