Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132022 221008 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 75.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 75.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 14.5 12.3 10.5 17.7 24.2 29.3 22.8 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 28.0 31.0 34.0 34.0 27.0 24.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 88.0 126.0 165.0 150.0 122.0 169.0 144.0 127.0 F F VF VF F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 81.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 89.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 10.0 16.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.6% 9.4% 7.5% 25kt / 24h 47.0% 66.5% 56.7% 30kt / 24h 20.0% 52.9% 36.5% 35kt / 24h 12.2% 52.9% 32.5% 40kt / 24h 12.2% 51.4% 31.8% 45kt / 36h 38.1% 70.9% 54.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 52.0% 26.0% 55kt / 48h 48.0% 56.9% 52.5% 70kt / 48h 19.8% 41.2% 30.5% 65kt / 72h 37.6% 47.2% 42.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 AL132022 221008 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 75.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 14.5 12.3 10.5 17.7 24.2 29.3 22.8 N U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 81.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 89.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 10.0 16.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%