Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132022 221008 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.70 77.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 92.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 11.0 8.8 14.8 20.5 32.0 29.8 24.0 F F F F N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 33.0 34.0 31.0 44.0 29.0 18.0 19.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 120.0 164.0 133.0 126.0 139.0 184.0 145.0 72.0 F VF VF F VF VF VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 84.0 84.0 83.0 84.0 84.0 85.0 90.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 3.0 -2.0 0.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.3% 42.9% 43.6% 25kt / 24h 83.5% 90.0% 86.8% 30kt / 24h 66.7% 89.4% 78.0% 35kt / 24h 55.5% 89.4% 72.4% 40kt / 24h 53.6% 87.9% 70.7% 45kt / 36h 69.0% 89.6% 79.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 83.7% 41.8% 55kt / 48h 51.2% 74.1% 62.7% 70kt / 48h 24.6% 64.8% 44.7% 65kt / 72h 29.2% 55.6% 42.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.62 AL132022 221008 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.70 77.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 11.0 8.8 14.8 20.5 32.0 29.8 24.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 84.0 84.0 83.0 84.0 84.0 85.0 90.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 3.0 -2.0 0.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%