Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132022 221008 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 79.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.2 10.5 13.7 17.6 23.6 30.5 29.3 29.3 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 31.0 30.0 34.0 31.0 22.0 18.0 18.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 149.0 124.0 100.0 128.0 199.0 161.0 115.0 115.0 VF F F F VF VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 82.0 83.0 84.0 84.0 84.0 88.0 88.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 54.4% 49.0% 51.7% 25kt / 24h 83.0% 89.0% 86.0% 30kt / 24h 69.3% 88.6% 78.9% 35kt / 24h 64.1% 88.6% 76.4% 40kt / 24h 49.1% 87.3% 68.2% 45kt / 36h 69.3% 85.8% 77.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 76.8% 38.4% 55kt / 48h 50.5% 67.3% 58.9% 70kt / 48h 21.9% 52.1% 37.0% 65kt / 72h 22.1% 41.4% 31.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 AL132022 221008 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 79.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.2 10.5 13.7 17.6 23.6 30.5 29.3 29.3 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 82.0 83.0 84.0 84.0 84.0 88.0 88.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%