Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132022 221008 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 80.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 68.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.0 15.3 19.9 21.8 22.8 24.6 19.1 19.1 F F N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 30.0 26.0 41.0 24.0 20.0 16.0 16.0 U U U N U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 120.0 105.0 106.0 145.0 182.0 152.0 94.0 94.0 F F F VF VF VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 86.0 89.0 89.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 15.8% 21.4% 18.6% 25kt / 24h 55.7% 68.5% 62.1% 30kt / 24h 31.5% 61.4% 46.4% 35kt / 24h 23.5% 61.4% 42.4% 40kt / 24h 16.5% 59.5% 38.0% 45kt / 36h 41.3% 54.9% 48.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 32.5% 16.2% 55kt / 48h 41.8% 46.3% 44.1% 70kt / 48h 11.0% 21.8% 16.4% 65kt / 72h 23.6% 29.9% 26.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 AL132022 221008 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 80.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.0 15.3 19.9 21.8 22.8 24.6 19.1 19.1 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 86.0 89.0 89.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%