Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132022 221009 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.50 82.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 18.5 24.2 23.5 20.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 27.0 31.0 25.0 17.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 126.0 114.0 120.0 164.0 197.0 112.0 112.0 112.0 F F F VF VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 84.0 86.0 85.0 85.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 49.3% 40.8% 45.0% 25kt / 24h 75.7% 79.9% 77.8% 30kt / 24h 57.1% 79.1% 68.1% 35kt / 24h 48.6% 79.1% 63.8% 40kt / 24h 46.8% 76.9% 61.8% 45kt / 36h 57.4% 65.9% 61.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 46.0% 23.0% 55kt / 48h 41.9% 52.5% 47.2% 70kt / 48h 9.3% 24.5% 16.9% 65kt / 72h 12.5% 22.1% 17.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 AL132022 221009 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.50 82.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 18.5 24.2 23.5 20.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 84.0 86.0 85.0 85.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%