Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132022 221009 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 83.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 96.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 25.3 22.4 19.0 26.7 21.6 21.6 21.6 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 32.0 23.0 18.0 16.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 89.3 89.3 89.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 118.0 144.0 198.0 224.0 172.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 F VF VF VF VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 4.0 3.0 -2.0 -2.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 78.8% 52.3% 65.5% 25kt / 24h 95.4% 89.4% 92.4% 30kt / 24h 95.4% 89.4% 92.4% 35kt / 24h 95.4% 89.4% 92.4% 40kt / 24h 95.4% 87.9% 91.6% 45kt / 36h 75.5% 70.1% 72.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 51.3% 25.7% 55kt / 48h 42.3% 53.7% 48.0% 70kt / 48h 7.9% 24.9% 16.4% 65kt / 72h 6.0% 18.7% 12.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.32 AL132022 221009 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 83.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 25.3 22.4 19.0 26.7 21.6 21.6 21.6 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 4.0 3.0 -2.0 -2.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%