Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132022 221009 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 84.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 24.5 26.7 28.8 24.3 15.5 15.5 15.5 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 22.0 18.0 17.0 19.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 154.0 214.0 233.0 220.0 155.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 VF VF VF VF VF N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 -3.0 0.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.4% 11.4% 11.9% 25kt / 24h 57.1% 55.8% 56.5% 30kt / 24h 23.4% 47.8% 35.6% 35kt / 24h 21.6% 47.8% 34.7% 40kt / 24h 21.6% 43.9% 32.8% 45kt / 36h 31.6% 28.3% 29.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 10.6% 5.3% 55kt / 48h 26.6% 30.7% 28.7% 70kt / 48h 2.9% 7.3% 5.1% 65kt / 72h 9.4% 13.9% 11.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 AL132022 221009 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 84.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 24.5 26.7 28.8 24.3 15.5 15.5 15.5 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 -3.0 0.0 7.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%