Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221011 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     94.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  12.2  16.6  18.5  23.5  21.4  27.2  20.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  24.0  32.0  37.0  37.0  32.0  25.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0  79.0  80.0  70.0  13.0   1.0  11.0  -6.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  72.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%       12.2%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       36.4%       61.8%       49.1%
 30kt / 24h       17.7%       45.1%       31.4%
 35kt / 24h       13.1%       45.1%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       44.8%       24.9%
 45kt / 36h       21.8%       65.3%       43.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       45.5%       22.8%
 55kt / 48h       22.7%       39.0%       30.8%
 70kt / 48h        9.8%       30.4%       20.1%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%       32.5%       22.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 AL142022 221011 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     94.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  12.2  16.6  18.5  23.5  21.4  27.2  20.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  72.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%