Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221012 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  23.2  25.8  29.2  31.2  26.4  29.3  26.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  41.0  50.0  59.0  51.0  45.0  20.0  15.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  87.0  49.0  28.0  -3.0  -2.0  24.0  33.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.7%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       20.0%       14.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        8.4%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        8.1%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        8.1%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       16.3%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        8.2%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        4.0%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       10.5%        9.6%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 AL142022 221012 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  23.2  25.8  29.2  31.2  26.4  29.3  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%