Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  24.8  28.7  30.6  28.2  30.9  25.4  25.6  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  47.0  50.0  54.0  47.0  36.0  14.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  46.0  19.0  13.0   9.0  19.0  13.0  26.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       11.3%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.2%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        9.5%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        4.6%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.8%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        5.9%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 AL142022 221012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  24.8  28.7  30.6  28.2  30.9  25.4  25.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%