Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     94.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  31.9  30.2  27.6  31.3  21.9  22.8  19.2  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  32.0  35.0  36.0  33.0  19.0  11.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -10.0   2.0   5.0   7.0  -6.0   8.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        6.3%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       23.8%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.8%       12.6%       11.7%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       12.6%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       12.6%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       17.0%       12.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        6.3%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        6.1%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 AL142022 221012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     94.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  31.9  30.2  27.6  31.3  21.9  22.8  19.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%