Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     94.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  31.5  29.6  30.9  27.9  22.6  19.9  15.9  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  26.0  26.0  19.0  13.0  11.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -9.0   9.0  -4.0 -18.0  -7.0  -1.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        3.8%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       15.7%       10.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        7.5%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        7.5%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        7.5%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       10.4%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        4.5%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 AL142022 221013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     94.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  31.5  29.6  30.9  27.9  22.6  19.9  15.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%