Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  32.6  32.7  30.9  25.3  21.0  17.6  17.8  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  26.0  24.0  19.0  15.0  11.0   5.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   5.0 -12.0 -14.0 -12.0  -3.0  -8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 AL142022 221013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  32.6  32.7  30.9  25.3  21.0  17.6  17.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%