Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     93.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  30.2  28.4  25.0  22.0  18.7  16.6  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  18.0  15.0  17.0  14.0   2.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -29.0 -33.0 -31.0 -11.0 -14.0  -8.0  -8.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.6%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL142022 221013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     93.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  30.2  28.4  25.0  22.0  18.7  16.6  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  63.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%