Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     93.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  29.0  25.7  26.5  22.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  18.0  19.0  15.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -29.0 -14.0 -23.0  -7.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.3%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL142022 221014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     93.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  29.0  25.7  26.5  22.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%