Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     92.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  27.7  27.4  27.1  19.7  19.7  19.7  19.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  19.0  21.0  19.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -29.0 -41.0 -22.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.1%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL142022 221014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     92.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  27.7  27.4  27.1  19.7  19.7  19.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%