Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     92.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  24.1  23.5  21.5  16.3  16.3  16.3  16.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  21.0  18.0  16.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0 -33.0 -17.0 -31.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 VU VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.9%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       19.0%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%       10.9%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%       10.8%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        9.9%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       20.7%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.9%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%       12.6%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.9%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%       10.7%        5.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL142022 221014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     92.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  24.1  23.5  21.5  16.3  16.3  16.3  16.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%