Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  26.6  25.2  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  15.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -18.0 -22.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.5%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        8.2%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        4.5%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        5.2%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 AL142022 221014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  26.6  25.2  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%