Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     92.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  25.8  23.3  18.8  18.8  18.8  18.8  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  14.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -30.0 -13.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        4.1%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL142022 221015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     92.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  25.8  23.3  18.8  18.8  18.8  18.8  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%