Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142022 221015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     92.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  24.3  20.9  22.5  22.5  22.5  22.5  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  14.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0 -21.0 -15.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        3.6%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 AL142022 221015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     92.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  24.3  20.9  22.5  22.5  22.5  22.5  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%