Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221030 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     73.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  17.0  17.4  17.3  16.0  19.5  22.4  21.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  66.0  82.0  88.0  61.0  68.0  74.0  29.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0  -5.0 -10.0  -8.0  15.0  60.0  71.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        6.1%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.4%       34.8%       23.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       17.7%       14.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.6%       17.4%       13.0%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       17.4%       13.0%
 45kt / 36h       20.4%       46.0%       33.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.3%       11.7%
 55kt / 48h       30.3%       27.5%       28.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       21.4%       23.0%
 65kt / 72h       55.1%       42.3%       48.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 AL152022 221030 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     73.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  17.0  17.4  17.3  16.0  19.5  22.4  21.2  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%