Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.0  16.3  12.3   8.2  13.6  15.7  21.6  F  N  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  91.0  97.0  79.0  46.0  56.0  75.0  28.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -8.0 -11.0   1.0  45.0 120.0 103.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  63.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        4.6%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       32.5%       21.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%       16.5%       12.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       15.4%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       15.4%        9.2%
 45kt / 36h       19.8%       46.6%       33.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.5%       11.7%
 55kt / 48h       40.3%       37.0%       38.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       26.8%       25.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       54.1%       58.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 AL152022 221031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.0  16.3  12.3   8.2  13.6  15.7  21.6  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  63.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%