Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221031 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  16.8  12.5  10.1  12.2  15.2  19.4  25.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  90.0  63.0  45.0  51.0  69.0  36.0  28.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0  -7.0  14.0  28.0 103.0 130.0 106.0  94.0  U  U  U  U  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  67.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       24.3%       15.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%       11.6%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%       10.5%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       10.5%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.4%       33.5%       23.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.7%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       34.7%       29.7%       32.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       17.1%       20.9%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       39.6%       50.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 AL152022 221031 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  16.8  12.5  10.1  12.2  15.2  19.4  25.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  67.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%