Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221031 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     76.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  12.5  11.2  10.5  15.6  21.3  23.4  26.6  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  59.0  47.0  39.0  50.0  43.0  25.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  -3.0  23.0  33.0  99.0  76.0  78.0  47.0  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  70.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   8.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.7%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.9%       30.1%       19.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       15.8%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       14.5%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       14.5%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h       14.8%       39.3%       27.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.6%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h       30.5%       28.2%       29.4%
 70kt / 48h       21.1%       15.4%       18.3%
 65kt / 72h       41.4%       28.3%       34.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 AL152022 221031 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     76.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  12.5  11.2  10.5  15.6  21.3  23.4  26.6  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  70.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   8.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%