Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221031 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  10.8   8.5  11.0  19.3  22.5  25.0  29.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  42.0  40.0  45.0  59.0  25.0  29.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  28.0  15.0  68.0  88.0  81.0  58.0  73.0  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  68.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   6.0   9.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        9.2%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       50.7%       35.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.0%       34.1%       24.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.1%       34.1%       21.6%
 40kt / 24h        9.1%       34.1%       21.6%
 45kt / 36h       28.9%       55.4%       42.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.6%       16.3%
 55kt / 48h       34.7%       36.9%       35.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.1%       21.8%       22.0%
 65kt / 72h       31.4%       26.8%       29.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 AL152022 221031 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  10.8   8.5  11.0  19.3  22.5  25.0  29.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  68.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   6.0   9.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%