Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     78.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8   9.7  12.1  16.4  19.9  20.9  28.0  24.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  38.0  45.0  50.0  32.0  25.0  19.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  23.0  44.0  79.0  75.0  95.0  87.0  88.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  69.0  72.0  73.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0   8.0   8.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.5%       16.4%       12.0%
 25kt / 24h       33.8%       64.7%       49.3%
 30kt / 24h       19.3%       53.5%       36.4%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       53.5%       32.3%
 40kt / 24h       11.0%       52.2%       31.6%
 45kt / 36h       29.4%       66.7%       48.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       49.1%       24.5%
 55kt / 48h       38.3%       50.1%       44.2%
 70kt / 48h       20.0%       33.9%       27.0%
 65kt / 72h       32.8%       37.7%       35.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 AL152022 221101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     78.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8   9.7  12.1  16.4  19.9  20.9  28.0  24.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  69.0  72.0  73.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0   8.0   8.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%