Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     79.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.5  13.7  16.0  16.9  18.7  23.2  24.8  23.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  45.0  50.0  56.0  26.0  27.0  10.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  62.0 112.0 132.0 121.0 112.0 102.0 109.0  U  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        9.2%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       26.2%       53.7%       39.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.7%       38.5%       25.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.6%       38.5%       22.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       37.5%       22.1%
 45kt / 36h       24.5%       53.9%       39.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.2%       16.1%
 55kt / 48h       36.7%       42.7%       39.7%
 70kt / 48h       19.3%       24.0%       21.7%
 65kt / 72h       42.8%       35.3%       39.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 AL152022 221101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     79.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.5  13.7  16.0  16.9  18.7  23.2  24.8  23.3  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%