Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     81.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  14.7  15.6  17.7  21.2  25.5  24.1  20.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  47.0  52.0  43.0  34.0  28.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0 122.0 132.0 131.0 147.0 101.0 109.0  54.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  69.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   6.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%       10.4%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h       35.4%       61.1%       48.2%
 30kt / 24h       14.7%       47.8%       31.2%
 35kt / 24h        8.0%       47.8%       27.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.0%       45.3%       26.7%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%       60.6%       44.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       38.8%       19.4%
 55kt / 48h       41.7%       47.7%       44.7%
 70kt / 48h       19.4%       28.3%       23.9%
 65kt / 72h       40.5%       38.5%       39.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 AL152022 221101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     81.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  14.7  15.6  17.7  21.2  25.5  24.1  20.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  69.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   6.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%