Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.2  20.6  20.7  24.3  27.0  25.1  20.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  56.0  45.0  30.0  29.0  14.0   4.0  17.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0 112.0 110.0 102.0  68.0  65.0 102.0  42.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  64.0  67.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  66.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.3%       17.9%       17.1%
 25kt / 24h       53.5%       64.7%       59.1%
 30kt / 24h       32.5%       51.9%       42.2%
 35kt / 24h       24.7%       51.9%       38.3%
 40kt / 24h       24.7%       51.8%       38.3%
 45kt / 36h       35.7%       54.7%       45.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.6%       16.3%
 55kt / 48h       24.1%       32.5%       28.3%
 70kt / 48h       10.5%       17.0%       13.8%
 65kt / 72h       17.0%       21.1%       19.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 AL152022 221101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.2  20.6  20.7  24.3  27.0  25.1  20.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  64.0  67.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  66.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%