Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     84.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.1  22.1  24.4  29.4  25.4  22.3  30.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  37.0  31.0  30.0  10.0   4.0  17.0  10.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 126.0 104.0 112.0  68.0  98.0  38.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.5%       12.0%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       46.3%       50.3%       48.3%
 30kt / 24h       28.0%       36.0%       32.0%
 35kt / 24h       23.5%       36.0%       29.7%
 40kt / 24h       23.5%       36.0%       29.7%
 45kt / 36h       24.7%       28.9%       26.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.7%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%       16.9%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        6.0%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%        8.6%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 AL152022 221102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     84.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.1  22.1  24.4  29.4  25.4  22.3  30.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%