Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  21.3  21.6  24.5  29.1  26.8  23.6  36.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  31.0  27.0   9.0   4.0  20.0  13.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  95.1  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  97.0 107.0  68.0  81.0  71.0  49.0  25.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  63.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   7.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.7%       13.4%       17.0%
 25kt / 24h       42.3%       49.0%       45.7%
 30kt / 24h       34.8%       36.9%       35.8%
 35kt / 24h       34.8%       36.9%       35.8%
 40kt / 24h       34.8%       36.9%       35.8%
 45kt / 36h       23.0%       25.0%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.5%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%       14.5%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        4.3%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        4.5%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 AL152022 221102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  21.3  21.6  24.5  29.1  26.8  23.6  36.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  63.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   7.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%