Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     86.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  21.8  25.4  29.5  28.1  23.5  34.0  39.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  25.0   8.0   4.0  21.0  13.0   8.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  90.1  83.6  81.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  65.0  50.0  49.0  60.0  30.0  69.0  16.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  58.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0   3.0   0.0   5.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.4%        8.0%       10.7%
 25kt / 24h       19.0%       27.3%       23.1%
 30kt / 24h       16.9%       18.5%       17.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.9%       18.5%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h       16.9%       18.5%       17.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.1%        9.3%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        6.0%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 AL152022 221102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     86.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  21.8  25.4  29.5  28.1  23.5  34.0  39.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  58.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0   3.0   0.0   5.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%