Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  24.0  26.5  30.1  28.1  27.2  36.7  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0   8.0   4.0   5.0  16.0  10.0   9.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  89.6  78.6  76.5  76.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  49.0  77.0  71.0  73.0  53.0  13.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  59.0  54.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   3.0   6.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.3%       13.8%       20.6%
 25kt / 24h       35.7%       36.6%       36.2%
 30kt / 24h       35.7%       28.5%       32.1%
 35kt / 24h       35.7%       28.5%       32.1%
 40kt / 24h       35.7%       28.5%       32.1%
 45kt / 36h       17.4%       13.6%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        6.4%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 AL152022 221102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  24.0  26.5  30.1  28.1  27.2  36.7  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  59.0  54.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   3.0   6.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%