Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     88.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  26.6  28.8  28.4  27.7  37.0  41.8  41.6  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   4.0  15.0  18.0  12.0   7.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0  92.9  88.6  86.5  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  67.0  65.0  88.0  43.0  40.0  24.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  57.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        7.3%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        1.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 AL152022 221103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     88.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  26.6  28.8  28.4  27.7  37.0  41.8  41.6  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  57.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%