Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     89.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  29.4  29.4  28.9  29.4  40.8  32.7  44.3  N  N  N  N  N VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   9.0  20.0  15.0  10.0   8.0   9.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 119.3 112.3 103.6 101.5 101.5 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  66.0  71.0  58.0  59.0  20.0  63.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  58.0  54.0  47.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 AL152022 221103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     89.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  29.4  29.4  28.9  29.4  40.8  32.7  44.3  N  N  N  N  N VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  58.0  54.0  47.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%