Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     90.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  27.0  26.2  27.1  37.7  41.2  40.1  42.4  N  N  N  N  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  20.0  15.0  12.0   7.0   9.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 127.3 122.9 118.6 116.5 116.5 118.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  56.0  80.0  48.0  63.0  21.0 -20.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  66.0  62.0  55.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 AL152022 221103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     90.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  27.0  26.2  27.1  37.7  41.2  40.1  42.4  N  N  N  N  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  66.0  62.0  55.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%