Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  28.5  28.4  30.3  45.5  36.5  43.0  42.6  N  N  N  N VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  13.0  11.0  10.0  10.0  13.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        137.0 130.1 125.7 123.6 121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  91.0  67.0  50.0  46.0  32.0  -8.0  -3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  47.0  48.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 AL152022 221103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  28.5  28.4  30.3  45.5  36.5  43.0  42.6  N  N  N  N VF  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  47.0  48.0  42.0  N  N  N  F  F VF  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%