Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152022 221105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  35.7  37.0  41.6  41.1  39.4  39.4  39.4 VU  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5 123.6 123.6 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  11.0   2.0 -25.0  -2.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  43.0  42.0  39.0  40.0  40.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 AL152022 221105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  35.7  37.0  41.6  41.1  39.4  39.4  39.4 VF  F  F VF VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  43.0  42.0  39.0  40.0  40.0  40.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.2%        0.1%        0.7%