Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162022 221101 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 56.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.9 32.7 28.8 27.3 38.6 50.2 36.3 30.2 U U N N U VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.5 75.0 72.2 68.0 60.5 28.4 5.6 1.3 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 -10.0 -7.0 49.0 54.0 31.0 76.0 51.0 N U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 44.0 50.0 56.0 64.0 62.0 63.0 61.0 VU VU U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -6.0 0.0 5.0 -5.0 -22.0 3.0 -10.0 F F N N F VF N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.70 AL162022 221101 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 56.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.