Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162022 221101 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 55.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 26.1 28.1 30.8 44.9 67.0 37.9 13.2 U N N U VU VU U F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 63.6 58.0 55.4 38.7 2.6 -6.7 -7.8 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 11.0 23.0 98.0 59.0 -9.0 46.0 51.0 U U U F N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 49.0 56.0 61.0 60.0 61.0 57.0 76.0 VU U U N N N U F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 4.0 1.0 -2.0 -59.0 -6.0 -2.0 N N N N N VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.58 AL162022 221101 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 55.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.