Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162022 221102 00UTC Storm Located at : 35.10 54.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 28.9 33.4 40.6 61.3 52.5 17.3 17.4 N N U U VU VU F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 63.6 59.4 56.7 50.5 20.8 -5.5 -7.1 -8.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 35.0 95.0 45.0 50.0 95.0 28.0 25.0 U N F N N F U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 54.0 63.0 63.0 58.0 66.0 57.0 75.0 VU U N N U N U F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 3.0 9.0 -1.0-148.0 20.0 -11.0 -22.0 N N U N VF VU F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.38 AL162022 221102 00UTC Storm Located at : 35.10 54.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.