Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162022 221102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  46.7  59.4  65.1  41.6  10.2  14.3  19.3  U VU VU VU VU  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.9  16.7  -2.3 -23.5 -31.9 -32.0 -31.3 -29.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  22.0  50.0   6.0  59.0  74.0   5.0  15.0  F  U  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  59.0  66.0  52.0  73.0  78.0  75.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -29.0 -13.0 -12.0   6.0  -5.0  14.0   6.0  N VF VF  F  N  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        0.0%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.42

 AL162022 221102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.