Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162022 221103 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 46.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.7 48.5 61.1 56.5 23.5 12.8 15.1 15.3 VU VU VU VU N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 8.3 -10.4 -24.9 -31.0 -32.3 -31.7 -30.4 -28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 51.0 -13.0 97.0 71.0 31.0 16.0 27.0 N N U F N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 79.0 76.0 80.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 37.0 93.0 87.0 -12.0 4.0 19.0 10.0 F VU VU VU F N VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.24 AL162022 221103 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 46.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.