Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162022 221103 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.40 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 145.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 62.2 67.6 60.0 41.1 9.5 15.7 21.1 20.3 VU VU VU VU F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -6.6 -23.2 -31.0 -32.1 -32.6 -31.7 -29.6 -29.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 20.0 91.0 71.0 85.0 -3.0 9.0 38.0 N U F N F U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 63.0 58.0 57.0 73.0 72.0 74.0 79.0 U N U U N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -36.0 11.0 -2.0 32.0 -7.0 19.0 16.0 -1.0 VF U N VU F VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.90 AL162022 221103 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.40 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.