Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162022 221103 12UTC Storm Located at : 43.60 38.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 66.0 61.9 46.2 22.4 12.6 14.8 19.2 22.2 VU VU VU N F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -22.7 -31.3 -32.0 -32.3 -32.1 -30.9 -27.7 -29.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 78.0 68.0 80.0 27.0 21.0 42.0 24.0 N N N N U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 59.0 54.0 64.0 75.0 75.0 78.0 83.0 N U U N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 65.0 27.0 -1.0 -11.0 11.0 15.0 10.0 2.0 VU VU N F U U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.30 AL162022 221103 12UTC Storm Located at : 43.60 38.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.