Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162022 221103 18UTC Storm Located at : 49.00 35.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 157.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 59.0 36.4 21.2 13.1 11.2 12.9 15.9 25.7 VU U N F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -26.2 -27.1 -27.6 -28.1 -26.4 -24.4 -24.5 -25.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 78.0 80.0 65.0 4.0 -6.0 38.0 3.0 F N N N U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 63.0 68.0 78.0 77.0 79.0 81.0 83.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 46.0 10.0 -6.0 -8.0 8.0 11.0 4.0 15.0 VU U F F U U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 11.62 AL162022 221103 18UTC Storm Located at : 49.00 35.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.